Coronavirus Mortgage and Real Estate Crisis of 2020

Moe Bedard

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As a warning to LoanSafe members and guests, I wanted to inform you in case you already do not know that there is a major mortgage crisis that is starting to brew and fester behind this coronavirus chaos. Every sign and the numbers all indicate that it is not a matter of if, but when this crash will happen yet again...

Some of you know that I created this forum in 2007 for struggling homeowners during the last crisis and it has been 13 years. I was the first person online to start a mortgage help website and a community that grew into one of the busiest and most popular websites in the world. After the crisis, the LoanSafe forum's traffic dwindled to almost nothing and so did our ad revenue as a result but I KNEW a mortgage crisis would ha[pen again so I kept this forum running on what little time and money I had due to the fact I had to find other work to support my family.

With that said, I have been at this mortgage and banking game for a long time and I have the ability to see the writing on the wall and predict the inevitable.

I predict that the investment market for mortgages will be a blood bath within the next 30 days or less we will start to see investors pull out of this sector as lenders will be forced to have a major slow down or to stop lending altogether.

The next domino will be the real estate consumer and homeowner who will no longer be able to acquire financing which ALWAYS results in plummeting real estate values from their current overprices status because in case you were not aware, these are BUBBLE prices that we are in and they are completely unsustainable.

Last but NOT least, millions of Americans will lose their wealth, jobs, and homes in one of the biggest economic crises in the history of humankind changing the very structure of not only your neighborhood but the entire the U.S. and the whole world.

Please do not let the people who make money off mortgages and real estate fool you into the market by record-low rates and artificial buying frenzies because you will simply be screwed within a year when you either lose your job or the home you just bought lost $300,000 in value.

It has happened maaaaannnny times before and will happen again and I predict soon, REAL SOON!!!
 

Moe Bedard

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Please use this thread to update with the news about the truth regarding the 2020 mortgage and real estate market CRASH. All the damn bankers, mortgage brokers, and real estate agents are lying in the media and to themselves about the reality of the current situation.

It ALWAYS starts with the homebuilders building new homes. Investors KNOW that people will lose their jobs so the demand for new homes will go down significantly and the builders will be screwed holding all kinds of property and homes no longer able to rake in the cash.

DOMINO #1

Homebuilding stocks having their worst day since the subprime crisis
PUBLISHED THU, MAR 12 202012:49 PM EDTUPDATED THU, MAR 12 20202:45 PM EDT


Homebuilding stocks having their worst day since the subprime crisis.png

Stocks of the nation’s homebuilders are tanking, on pace for their worst day since Dec. 1, 2008, when the subprime mortgage crisis brought the whole housing market to its knees.

A combination of factors are weighing on the sector. Mortgage rates fell to a record low last week, but are moving up again this week as lenders try to handle an onslaught of refinance demand. Applications to refinance a home loan jumped 79% in one week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

In addition, Bank of America downgraded Lennar, Toll Brothers and NVR, saying that while they are still bullish on housing, “We would be remiss to assume no impact on end-market demand from COVID-19.”

Names like D.R. Horton and Pulte are down double digits on the day and well off 52-week highs, as is the home construction ETF, ITB. Toll Brothers in particular, a luxury builder, will likely be impacted by the massive drop in the stock market.

Read more @ CNBC
 

Moe Bedard

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America's housing crisis
March 8, 2020


Millions of Americans can no longer dream of buying a home. Rental apartments are also unaffordable. Why? Here's everything you need to know:

What's gone wrong?
From cities to suburbs to rural America, the cost of housing has far outpaced increases in salaries. Home prices are growing at twice the rate of wages, and there are fewer houses on the market than in any year since 1982. The single-family house, with a garage and a front lawn, remains a bedrock of the American dream, even as it recedes from many people's reach. Young adults are one-third less likely to be homeowners than the previous generation was at the same age, and nearly two-thirds of renters say they can't afford a house. The median single-family house costs about $280,000, with demand driving prices at the lower end of the market to rise twice as fast as those of high-end homes. Once the backbone of U.S. wealth, housing has become a civic, economic, and environmental catastrophe.

Is renting any better?

It's even worse. Nearly half of renters are cost-burdened — meaning they spend at least 30 percent of their income on rent. Since 1960, renters' average earnings have increased 5 percent as rents have jumped 61 percent. Eleven million Americans spend more than half of their paycheck on rent. They have little choice: After 2011, more than 4 million units renting for $800 or less per month disappeared nationwide. In trendy cities like Seattle and Austin, older, multifamily buildings are being demolished or converted into condominiums and co-ops. A minuscule percentage of new apartments are low-rent. Today, a full-time minimum-wage worker can afford a two-bedroom rental in precisely zero U.S. counties; on average, it would take clocking 127 hours a week at the federal minimum wage to make paying for one possible.

Read more @ The WEEK
 

Moe Bedard

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And yes, it is a conspiracy and always has been...

5 essential books to understand the housing crisis
It’s not your fault that you can’t afford a home—it’s government policy, ruthless banks, and discrimination

By Diana Budds Mar 9, 2020, 1:00pm EDT

Housing crisis  The 5 best books to read now - Curbed (1).png

Issues like racism and discrimination, federal housing and labor policy, the mortgage industry, and the longstanding obsession with property values have all contributed to the the mounting problem—which is complicated in ways that most of us don’t fully appreciate. Thankfully, inquisitive journalists and social scientists have plumbed the depths of these issues in books that are informative page-turners.

To better understand the landscape, we asked experts—in the overall housing market, land use, the financial industry, and criticism—to recommend books on the subject and venture a recommendation of our own. These titles explain how the affordable housing crisis intersects with issues like race, poverty, real estate speculation, gentrification, finance, and even who shows up to public meetings.

Read more @ Curbed
 

Moe Bedard

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'Big Short' investor Michael Burry made a 'significant' bet that's paying off as coronavirus ravages markets

  • Michael Burry, a hedge fund manager portrayed by Christian Bale in movie "The Big Short," has a wager against markets that paid off this week as coronavirus fears and an oil shock spurred a massive sell-off.
  • The money manager, who correctly called the 2008 housing crisis, has a "significant bearish market bet that is working out for now," he told Bloomberg.
  • Burry predicted the coronavirus pandemic could burst the passive investing "bubble."
  • "With COVID-19, the hysteria appears to me worse than the reality, but after the stampede, it won't matter whether what started it justified it."

"No one knows how long it will last, and so people have a valid reason to sell," he told Bloomberg, adding that stockholders could no longer be certain that their investments would rise in value or that central banks could "apply the brakes" and prevent a sell-off.

The worldwide spread of coronavirus could spark an exodus from passive investments such as index funds and exchange-traded funds, Burry said. He argued last year that too much money has flown into passive investing, and complained that the strategy's focus on bigger companies was leaving smaller stocks "orphaned."

"A global pandemic is absolutely a potential trigger for the unwinding of the passive investing bubble," he told Bloomberg. "With COVID-19, the hysteria appears to me worse than the reality, but after the stampede, it won't matter whether what started it justified it."

Read more @ Bloomberg

 

Moe Bedard

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And while the toilet paper apocalypse happens at your local Walmart, people are being dragged from their homes into forced quarantine by the military in China and WILL happen here...

 

Moe Bedard

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BAILOUT DOMINO #1 ALWAYS STARTS WITH THE AUTO INDUSTRY

1st China, then Ameria is how it happens...


After 79% Sales Crash In February, China Automakers Beg Government For Bailout

caam1.png

We had been reporting China's February auto sales numbers on a week by week basis, so Zero Hedge readers knew they were going to be ugly for the month. They just didn't know how ugly.

Industry wide, sales fell 79% in February, marking the biggest ever monthly plunge on record, according to Reuters.

And the industry is starting to panic. Automakers are now asking the government for relief after the industry's collapse, which occurred in the midst of an already-in-progress global recession for automakers. Specifically, they are asking for cuts on the purchase tax for smaller vehicles and support for sales in rural markets, in addition to the easing of emission requirements.


Zero Hedge
 

Jzone

LoanSafe Member
Jun 20, 2017
185
24
18
70
As a warning to LoanSafe members and guests, I wanted to inform you in case you already do not know that there is a major mortgage crisis that is starting to brew and fester behind this coronavirus chaos. Every sign and the numbers all indicate that it is not a matter of if, but when this crash will happen yet again...

Some of you know that I created this forum in 2007 for struggling homeowners during the last crisis and it has been 13 years. I was the first person online to start a mortgage help website and a community that grew into one of the busiest and most popular websites in the world. After the crisis, the LoanSafe forum's traffic dwindled to almost nothing and so did our ad revenue as a result but I KNEW a mortgage crisis would ha[pen again so I kept this forum running on what little time and money I had due to the fact I had to find other work to support my family.

With that said, I have been at this mortgage and banking game for a long time and I have the ability to see the writing on the wall and predict the inevitable.

I predict that the investment market for mortgages will be a blood bath within the next 30 days or less we will start to see investors pull out of this sector as lenders will be forced to have a major slow down or to stop lending altogether.

The next domino will be the real estate consumer and homeowner who will no longer be able to acquire financing which ALWAYS results in plummeting real estate values from their current overprices status because in case you were not aware, these are BUBBLE prices that we are in and they are completely unsustainable.

Last but NOT least, millions of Americans will lose their wealth, jobs, and homes in one of the biggest economic crises in the history of humankind changing the very structure of not only your neighborhood but the entire the U.S. and the whole world.

Please do not let the people who make money off mortgages and real estate fool you into the market by record-low rates and artificial buying frenzies because you will simply be screwed within a year when you either lose your job or the home you just bought lost $300,000 in value.

It has happened maaaaannnny times before and will happen again and I predict soon, REAL SOON!!!
I agree that we havent seen the worse yet, but for the mortgage industry, some changes were put in to place to help ease the problems that happened in 2008. No more 0 interest/interest only/no doc mortgages etc...

I think your 30 day assessment is spot on. The stock market and housing market will continue to shake out and finally bottom out.

I found this site around 2010. By using the strategies listed here, Im still in my house and in much better financial shape than I was in 2008. The best advice I got was member Tom Eason's post on second mortgages and bankruptcy. Im sure in the next 6 months many others will look into that and follow it as I did.

Thanks for keeping this site up and running all these years.
 

Moe Bedard

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You are welcome! I appreciate you sharing your testimonial and the kind words Jzone.

OK, the thing that I see different from 2008 is that we have MANY industries such as hospitality, entertainment, schools, etc all shutting down at once which is in my opinion, similar to millions of people all losing their jobs at the same time. This scenario actually already dwarfs the number of people who had subprime mortgages etc.

The reason is the last bubble was propped up and we are in an artificial economy living on life aid. Italy will be the first one to go and then it is all over for the EU and then the U.S. What is interesting is that Italy has been in financial trouble for years and they have been warning of a crash prior to the coronavirus problem.


A financial crisis spurred by the coronavirus could start in Italy ...
www.washingtonpost.com › business › 2020/03/11 › financial-crisis-cor...


3 days ago - If the coronavirus causes a new global financial crisis, it may start with an Italian bank. Already, Italy's economy has been brought to an abrupt ...

Debt and doom loops: The eurozone′s Italian nightmare ...
www.dw.com › debt-and-doom-loops-the-eurozones-italian-nightmare


Aug 27, 2019 - Italy faces prospect of snap elections. During the years of the global financial crisis from 2007-2008, several banks collapsed. When major ...

Doomed: How There's No Way Out Of The Debt Crisis For Italy
www.forbes.com › sites › simonconstable › 2019/06/20 › doomed-ho...


Jun 20, 2019 - But unlike those countries, Italy won't manage to extricate itself from its current problem without causing a calamity in the financial markets.

Italy's 'perma-recession' could trigger a systemic crisis that ...
www.businessinsider.com › italy-perma-recession-systemic-crisis-threa...


Apr 21, 2019 - Economists in Milan and London are debating whether Italy is carrying so much debt that it might collapse into a Greek-style financial crisis. Their ...


All About the Italian Economic Crisis of 2018 - Investopedia
www.investopedia.com › Investing › Markets › International Markets


May 15, 2019 - A look into what's going on behind the scenes in Italy, which has caused ... As M5S and Lega Nord refused to offer a different choice for finance ...

Italy's Biggest Economic Problem? It's Still Italy - The New ...
www.nytimes.com › 2019/08/09 › business › italy-economy-debt


Aug 9, 2019 - NAPLES, Italy — Whatever hopes there were that a radically ... Ten years ago, in the midst of the global financial crisis, Antonio Pastore lost the ...

Why Italy Could Be the Epicenter of the Next Financial Crisis ...
www.nytimes.com › 2018/10/12 › business › italy-debt-crisis-eu-brussels


Oct 12, 2018 - Financial crises tend to arrive every decade or so, and Italy is near the top of a ... The eurozone is still recovering from a debt crisis that began in ...

Italy: the crisis that could go viral - spiked
www.spiked-online.com › 2020/02/28 › italy-the-crisis-that-could-go-...


Coronavirus threatens to turn Italy's economic and financial crisis into a global one. Ashoka Mody. 28th February 2020. Share. AddThis Sharing Buttons.
 

marincountyowner

LoanSafe Member
Feb 9, 2009
117
5
18
As a warning to LoanSafe members and guests, I wanted to inform you in case you already do not know that there is a major mortgage crisis that is starting to brew and fester behind this coronavirus chaos. Every sign and the numbers all indicate that it is not a matter of if, but when this crash will happen yet again...

Some of you know that I created this forum in 2007 for struggling homeowners during the last crisis and it has been 13 years. I was the first person online to start a mortgage help website and a community that grew into one of the busiest and most popular websites in the world. After the crisis, the LoanSafe forum's traffic dwindled to almost nothing and so did our ad revenue as a result but I KNEW a mortgage crisis would ha[pen again so I kept this forum running on what little time and money I had due to the fact I had to find other work to support my family.

With that said, I have been at this mortgage and banking game for a long time and I have the ability to see the writing on the wall and predict the inevitable.

I predict that the investment market for mortgages will be a blood bath within the next 30 days or less we will start to see investors pull out of this sector as lenders will be forced to have a major slow down or to stop lending altogether.

The next domino will be the real estate consumer and homeowner who will no longer be able to acquire financing which ALWAYS results in plummeting real estate values from their current overprices status because in case you were not aware, these are BUBBLE prices that we are in and they are completely unsustainable.

Last but NOT least, millions of Americans will lose their wealth, jobs, and homes in one of the biggest economic crises in the history of humankind changing the very structure of not only your neighborhood but the entire the U.S. and the whole world.

Please do not let the people who make money off mortgages and real estate fool you into the market by record-low rates and artificial buying frenzies because you will simply be screwed within a year when you either lose your job or the home you just bought lost $300,000 in value.

It has happened maaaaannnny times before and will happen again and I predict soon, REAL SOON!!!
Hello Moe,

I am still in my home, thanks to you. I got two modifications. . My son was 2 when I bought this home with a no docs, pick a payment, neg am loan.

Now he is 16 and I have built equity and the loan I have now is a 40 year loan with a 3.25 % interest rate. My credit was not negatively effected at all, and I was able to continue to live here after my divorce. I still have 35 years left on this loan.

The only thing is that I didn't get my ex's name off the loan. I am considering a refi in this market. I'm waiting for the interest rates to go down to lower than 3.25 %. Are you saying this won't be possible? Are you saying I should not try to refinance?

I have good credit and my home is worth twice what I owe. If I refinance I can get the ex off the loan and save about a hundred thousand dollars in interest.

I trust you so much and would welcome your feedback.

Thank you and everyone stay home and stay healthy.
 
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bigfrog

LoanSafe Member
Aug 31, 2011
358
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MOE.. First I want to say many thanks. I am sure every suckers in here owe you the same many thanks. Second, most of us predicted the financial crisis will come. And probably is more prepared. Just didn't know how it was going to come.

The Fed worked very hard to keep it all together. They did the best thing they could do, pump money into the economy. They indirectly giving people free money. To keep the economy afloat. Money is worthless when one is sicked or dying. Its one of those things, that is destined to be.
 
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Moe Bedard

Call 1-800-779-4547
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Aug 10, 2007
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Hello Moe,

I am still in my home, thanks to you. I got two modifications. . My son was 2 when I bought this home with a no docs, pick a payment, neg am loan.

Now he is 16 and I have built equity and the loan I have now is a 40 year loan with a 3.25 % interest rate. My credit was not negatively effected at all, and I was able to continue to live here after my divorce. I still have 35 years left on this loan.

The only thing is that I didn't get my ex's name off the loan. I am considering a refi in this market. I'm waiting for the interest rates to go down to lower than 3.25 %. Are you saying this won't be possible? Are you saying I should not try to refinance?

I have good credit and my home is worth twice what I owe. If I refinance I can get the ex off the loan and save about a hundred thousand dollars in interest.

I trust you so much and would welcome your feedback.

Thank you and everyone stay home and stay healthy.
Hello bigfrog!

Thanks for the kind words and sharing with the community.

In regards to refinancing, by all means, DO IT NOW while you still can because, in about 2-4 weeks, there will be very little lending going on as investors pull out of investing in mortgage-backed securities and banks halt lending programs as a result.

Last time this happened in late 2007, there was a refinance rush just like is happening now and right in the middle of the rush, early 2008, the market imploded and everyone who did not close their loan could not refinance anymore. Then values plummeted again as they always do and homeowners left upside down on their homes.
 

Moe Bedard

Call 1-800-779-4547
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MOE.. First I want to say many thanks. I am sure every suckers in here owe you the same many thanks. Second, most of us predicted the financial crisis will come. And probably is more prepared. Just didn't know how it was going to come.

The Fed worked very hard to keep it all together. They did the best thing they could do, pump money into the economy. They indirectly giving people free money. To keep the economy afloat. Money is worthless when one is sicked or dying. Its one of those things, that is destined to be.
You are very welcome!

Yes, many people predicted the crisis would come and I in fact said it never disappeared, it was just glossed over and as you said, people were given free money. It is akin to giving a dying man with no arms one last sip of water as you hold a full bottle over his head ask him to grab it and watch him die which is torture.

Sometimes it is best to not even offer the glass but it always is and thus the torture campaign has just begun....
 

Moe Bedard

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REAL ESTATE BUILDING MORATORIUM COMING

Now city and county officials are calling for a moratorium on commercial building projects so I urge you to prepare as needed and understand the business will not be the same for some time.

In addition, city and county governments are shutting down all non-essential services which mean no building permits

Brooklyn City Council member Carlos Menchaca is calling for a moratorium on construction work citywide, in what would be one of the most significant industry-related disruptions since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak.

City Council Member Calls for Construction Halt - The Real Deal.png

“I’m calling on the moratorium of all construction site work in NYC,” tweeted Menchaca, who represents District 38 including neighborhoods such as Sunset Park and Red Hook. “Again, we are putting workers in danger.”

His calls for suspension of all construction were echoed by Council member Brad Lander, who represents District 39 and is the Council’s deputy leader for policy.

“It is essential right now to build new hospital capacity,” Lander tweeted. “It is NOT essential right now to build new condos.”


https://therealdeal.com/2020/03/16/stop-all-construction-in-nyc-now-menchaca/

LINKS TO CITY GOVERNMENTS CLOSING NON-ESSENTIAL SERVICES SUCH AS BUILDING PLANNING ETC

CLEVELAND, OH - https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/03/17/city-cleveland-buildings-closed-public-will-offer-limited-services/

GREENVILLE, OH - https://www.earlybirdpaper.com/city-shutting-down-building/

BOISE ID https://boisedev.com/news/2020/03/16/covid-mar-16

CARSON, CA https://carsonnow.org/story/03/16/2020/carson-city-outlines-department-closures-services-available-response-coronavirus-th

DELAWARE https://www.thestarpress.com/story/news/local/2020/03/13/coronavirus-closings-and-cancellations-muncie-eci/5040478002/

CHEYENNE WYOMING https://cowboystatedaily.com/2020/03/16/wyoming-coronavirus-city-of-cheyenne-announces-updated-work-plan/
 

lmg9512

LoanSafe Member
Mar 12, 2020
6
0
1
What do you think if anything will happen with those who will lose or have lost their jobs and can't make their mortgage payments?
 

Moe Bedard

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Most people live week to week or month to month due to the high cost of living in the U.S. so these people you mention will go late within 30 days and then extend to 90 days making them in default causing another mortgage crisis and loan modification craze as we saw in 2008-2011.
 
Last edited:

Moe Bedard

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1584583549503.jpeg
1584583549539.png
CNBC
Icahn is shorting the commercial real estate market, which he says is going to 'blow up'

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn told CNBC on Friday he expects the U.S. commercial real estate market will crumble, much like the broader housing market collapse of 2008.

“You’re going to have this blow up, too, and nobody’s even looking at it,” Icahn said on “Halftime Report.”

Icahn said he is shorting the commercial mortgage bond market and it’s his “biggest position by far.”

Short selling is a bet against stocks or bonds, with shorts borrowing shares from an investment bank and selling them in hopes that the asset will lose value. If it does drop, shorts buy the shares back at a cheaper price and return them to the bank, turning a profit on the difference.


Corporate raider Carl Icahn sells newly built Miami Beach home
Icahn also owns a waterfront mansion on Indian Creek


Activist investor and corporate raider Carl Icahn sold a Miami Beach house for $4.9 million, The Real Deal has learned.


Icahn sold the four-bedroom, 5,400-square-foot home at 2535 Shelter Avenue for about $900 per square foot. It’s on Sunset Island II.

Icahn, who owns a mansion on Indian Creek, is now focusing his bet on credit default swaps on assets that back mortgages of corporate offices and malls. On CNBC, he made note of the housing market bubble of 2008 and the subsequent collapse of that market, and said he is seeing similar signs now.

 

Moe Bedard

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As I mentioned above, with everyone losing their jobs and or out on unemployment, they will not be able to make their mortgage payments let alone afford to keep up their Western lifestyles.

Stunning layoff figures from 11 states show the skyrocketing number of Americans that are losing work due to coronavirus

  • The coronavirus pandemic is threatening to plunge the nation into a recession, and signs are emerging significant numbers of Americans are already losing their jobs.
  • At least 11 states saw skyrocketing numbers of people filing for unemployment benefits, according to The Washington Post and data rounded up by economist Jacob Robbins.
  • In New Jersey, so many people filed for unemployment that it crashed the state's website.

Now, it is being forecasted to be the BIGGEST ECONOMIC DEPRESSION in 80 years since World War II and they are calling this a war against the virus.

Let me add this may very well be World War III where the whole globe appears to be involved fighting unseen forces and harmful organisms.


The worst global recession since World War II: Deutsche Bank just unveiled a bleak new forecast as the coronavirus rocks economies worldwide

  • Deutsche Bank said it sees the world plunging into a coronavirus-fueled recession in the first half of 2020 before recovering through the rest of the year.
  • Quarterly GDP declines seen in the first and second quarters will "substantially exceed anything previously recorded going back to at least World War II," the bank's economists wrote.
  • China will see its economy shrink by 31.7% in the first quarter before a sharp rebound in the following three-month period, the bank said, adding that the US economy would slump by 12.9% in the second quarter.
  • The bank cited the virus' rapid spread in Europe and the US and the faster-than-expected drop in economic activity for its latest forecast.
 

Erik Sandstrom

Mortgage Expert - Call 1-619-379-8999
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We sure do have a problem on our hands, non-QM Investors have already started to pull back or out. I have multiple loans impacted already, I've had a jumbo investor pull out as well and am only assuming more will continue. Interest rates have been the most volatile I have ever seen in my career, the 10 yr bond isn't impacting mortgage rates like you would think because of the MBS issues.

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac have announced relief (up to 12 months of payments if you can provide proof of a few things) along with GNMA (FHA) They have also put out eviction moratoriums and I haven't seen anything announced for commercial properties that will or could be heavily impacted. I'll start to keep everyone updated about market updates as of the extreme volatility.
 
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lmg9512

LoanSafe Member
Mar 12, 2020
6
0
1
Is there a list we can review of the proof of things needed for both Fannie and Freddie?

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac have announced relief (up to 12 months of payments if you can provide proof of a few things) along with GNMA (FHA) They have also put out eviction moratoriums and I haven't seen anything announced for commercial properties that will or could be heavily impacted. I'll start to keep everyone updated about market updates as of the extreme volatility.
[/QUOTE]